Florida continued down its path of electoral infamy yesterday by narrowly selecting J. McCain as the winner of the Republican primary. They might as well just hand the election to the Democrats!
I am distraught.
-J. Dyer
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Presidential Prognostications
The race for POTUS is underway, and this is one political junkie who does not mind how early the campaigning has begun. The Democrats have winnowed their way down to two contenders (H. Clinton and B. Obama) and one perennial loser (J. Edwards). The Republican race appears to be more fluid. With the Florida primary only days away, Real Clear Politics is reporting a virtual dead heat among four GOP candidates (R. Giuliani, M. Huckabee, J. McCain and M. Romney). The Democrats are focused on South Carolina, which appears to be trending toward B. Obama. Strangely enough, no candidate has gained momentum after winning previous primaries/caucuses. Fortunately, there are people like me in the world who follow this stuff far too excessively and can make educated guesses as to the potential outcomes:
Democrats
This race is fascinating, and it is only going to get better. While America is practically begging for a regime change, the Democrats have placed their 2008 hopes in two minorities. While I certainly think it is possible for either a woman or a black man to be elected president, I can't help to think that the Democratic nominee would be be a shoo-in if he were a white man. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but J. Kerry or A. Gore would have the White House locked up by now if either man were the candidate. Nonetheless, the Dems still have a very legitimate shot at winning, which is making this primary season quite theatrical. For a while I thought B. Obama would get some momentum going, and while he will likely win South Carolina, I can't help but think that America's fear of recession will make them choose H. Clinton's experience over B. Obama's hope. Super Tuesday will be interesting, but California and New York are both trending for the former first lady.
Prediction: H. Clinton
Republicans
While it appears that the GOP nomination is up for grabs, I feel much more conviction about my pick for the Republicans than for the Democrats. Careful examination of the conservative field reveals that this is a two-horse race between J. McCain and M. Romney. M. Huckabee was in the mix after winning Iowa, but his lack of funds coupled with the lack of evangelical voters in upcoming primaries makes his candidacy pretty unlikely. R. Giuliani has been waiting for Florida, and while I suppose the former Mayor of New York could make some noise in the Sunshine State, chances are he'll be as disappointed by the outcome as he was the day he discovered the fans at Notre Dame weren't referring to him when they cheered "Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!" . J. McCain seems to have a much more legitimate shot of winning the nomination, but there's one problem: Republicans don't like him. His victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina were the result of the open primary systems that allowed independents to vote despite being unaffiliated. J. McCain won an overwhelming amount of these voters, propelling him to "win the gold" in these two states. Too bad for him Florida is a closed primary. Combine this fact with the recent news of an economic slowdown and you have a recipe for M. Romney to win Florida and the momentum to carry him through Super Tuesday and the GOP nomination. Oh, and his net worth of $250 million doesn't hurt either.
Prediction: M. Romney
More on this in the future!
-J.Dyer
Democrats
This race is fascinating, and it is only going to get better. While America is practically begging for a regime change, the Democrats have placed their 2008 hopes in two minorities. While I certainly think it is possible for either a woman or a black man to be elected president, I can't help to think that the Democratic nominee would be be a shoo-in if he were a white man. Maybe I'm just being cynical, but J. Kerry or A. Gore would have the White House locked up by now if either man were the candidate. Nonetheless, the Dems still have a very legitimate shot at winning, which is making this primary season quite theatrical. For a while I thought B. Obama would get some momentum going, and while he will likely win South Carolina, I can't help but think that America's fear of recession will make them choose H. Clinton's experience over B. Obama's hope. Super Tuesday will be interesting, but California and New York are both trending for the former first lady.
Prediction: H. Clinton
Republicans
While it appears that the GOP nomination is up for grabs, I feel much more conviction about my pick for the Republicans than for the Democrats. Careful examination of the conservative field reveals that this is a two-horse race between J. McCain and M. Romney. M. Huckabee was in the mix after winning Iowa, but his lack of funds coupled with the lack of evangelical voters in upcoming primaries makes his candidacy pretty unlikely. R. Giuliani has been waiting for Florida, and while I suppose the former Mayor of New York could make some noise in the Sunshine State, chances are he'll be as disappointed by the outcome as he was the day he discovered the fans at Notre Dame weren't referring to him when they cheered "Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!" . J. McCain seems to have a much more legitimate shot of winning the nomination, but there's one problem: Republicans don't like him. His victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina were the result of the open primary systems that allowed independents to vote despite being unaffiliated. J. McCain won an overwhelming amount of these voters, propelling him to "win the gold" in these two states. Too bad for him Florida is a closed primary. Combine this fact with the recent news of an economic slowdown and you have a recipe for M. Romney to win Florida and the momentum to carry him through Super Tuesday and the GOP nomination. Oh, and his net worth of $250 million doesn't hurt either.
Prediction: M. Romney
More on this in the future!
-J.Dyer
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